What does Israel-Hamas deal mean ‘Important but not enough’ for US policy

Israel and Hamas have reached an agreement to implement a four-day ceasefire, which was announced on Wednesday. As part of this agreement, Palestinian prisoners currently held by Israel will also be released.

Qatar, the U.S., and Egypt brokered the deal, which was announced amidst escalating conflict in the central neighbourhoods of Gaza City.

On Wednesday night, Tzachi Hanegbi, Israel’s national security adviser, stated that the agreement would now come into effect on Friday, a day later than initially anticipated. Hanegbi did not provide any explanation for the delay.

Qatar

After a series of intermittent, indirect negotiations, an agreement has been reached that marks a critical phase in the ongoing war sparked by Hamas’ raid on October 7.

According to health authorities, the war has claimed the lives of over 11,000 Palestinians. Additionally, approximately 240 individuals were taken hostage by Hamas, and at least 1,200 have been killed by various militant groups.

Israel, Hamas, and Qatar have provided varying information regarding the agreement, although there does not seem to be any conflicting details between them.

WHAT’S IN THE DEAL?

On Wednesday, Qatar made an announcement stating that Hamas will release 50 hostages. In exchange, Hamas has said that they will receive 150 Palestinian prisoners currently held by Israel. It is important to note that the individuals being released by both sides will specifically include women and minors.

As part of the cease-fire agreement, the hostages will be released in stages. Following the release of the first group, Israel is anticipated to free the initial batch of Palestinian prisoners.

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Justice Ministry

The list of eligible prisoners published by Israel’s Justice Ministry includes many teenage boys who were detained during a wave of violence in the West Bank in 2022 or 2023.

These boys have been charged with offences such as stone-throwing or disturbing public order. Currently, Israel holds nearly 7,000 Palestinians who have been accused or convicted of security offences.

Israel has announced that the truce will be extended by one day for every ten additional hostages released. Additionally, Qatar stated that Israel has agreed to permit more fuel and humanitarian aid into Gaza, although further information was not provided.

According to Hamas, as part of the agreement, numerous trucks filled with humanitarian aid and fuel will be permitted to enter Gaza daily. Additionally, supplies will finally reach northern Gaza, which has been the main target of Israel’s ground offensive.

Israel’s Government

Israel’s government statement did not address the increase in aid and fuel deliveries. According to a report by Channel 12 TV, as part of the agreement, Israel will permit a substantial amount of fuel and humanitarian supplies into Gaza; however, the exact quantity has yet to be specified.

Throughout the conflict, Israel has imposed strict limitations on the amount of aid, particularly fuel, permitted into Gaza, resulting in critical shortages of water, food, and generator fuel.

During this time, there will be a temporary cessation of hostilities. Israeli jets and troops will cease their actions, while extremist groups are expected to abstain from launching rockets towards Israel.

During the four-day truce, Hamas announced that  warplanes would cease flying over southern Gaza. However, Israel did not mention any halt in flights, leaving uncertainty regarding the inclusion of its sophisticated intelligence drones, which have been consistently present over Gaza.

WHAT’S BEEN LEFT OUT?

Numerous families will rejoice as their loved ones are reunited. Yet, a substantial number of hostages, including men, women, older individuals, and foreign nationals, may still be held captive by Hamas.

The families excluded from the current agreement are expected to exert pressure on  Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to secure the release of their own loved ones in future negotiations.

The plight of these families has deeply affected Israelis and garnered extensive support.

On Wednesday, Netanyahu announced that as per the agreement, the remaining hostages will be visited by the International Committee of the Red Cross, which will provide them with the necessary medication. However, this detail has not been confirmed by either Hamas or the Red Cross.

The cease-fire will provide a momentary respite for Palestinians in Gaza. However, the displaced individuals who have evacuated the conflict-stricken area and moved south are unlikely to be able to go back to their homes. It is expected that  troops will maintain their positions in northern Gaza.

WHAT ARE THE DEAL’S POSSIBLE IMPLICATIONS?

The agreement provides a temporary respite from the ongoing conflict. , with aims to dismantle Hamas and secure the release of captives, is anticipated to continue its military operations once the four-day period concludes.

On Tuesday, Netanyahu stated that the cease-fire would allow the army to make necessary preparations for future fighting without undermining their war effort.

Following the expiration of the truce, airstrikes are expected to resume, while troops will proceed with their advancement in northern Gaza before venturing into the south at an undisclosed time. As a result, residents of Gaza should be prepared for a resurgence of hostilities.

Hamas Israel’s Claim

If a break in fighting occurs, it could allow Hamas to strategize, adjust militant positions, and potentially regroup. This may happen in response to Israel’s claim of eliminating a significant number of fighters and destroying critical military assets belonging to the group.

The deal’s staggered nature provides an opportunity for Hamas to increase its demands as negotiations progress, with the expectation that Israel will offer more concessions in return for the release of additional hostages.

Yahya Sinwar, the leader of Hamas in Gaza and believed to be the architect behind the attack on October 7th, could attempt to extend a temporary pause in hostilities into a more prolonged ceasefire by proposing the release of additional hostages.

Such an extension would present more significant challenges for Israel in terms of resuming the conflict, from both a practical standpoint and in terms of international public perception.

As more hostages are released, the Israeli government can expect increasing domestic pressure to secure the freedom of additional captives.

Families excluded from the initial agreement will likely become more resolved in their quest to see their loved ones liberated after witnessing the first groups being set free.